Guide
How to read hunting success rates
Updated September 23, 2026
From 2021 to 2025, Montana elk hunters took an elk at a rate of 20.9% and Idaho elk hunters at 15.6%. Those two figures look like a simple comparison. They are not quite, and knowing why is most of what it takes to read every rate on this site.
- 2021–2025
- seasons pooled into every ranked rate
- 100
- hunters a year, on average, before a unit is ranked
- Even / odd
- Montana survey years for elk / deer
What a success rate is
A success rate is animals harvested divided by hunters afield, for one unit and one year. Montana's numbers come from FWP's harvest reports and Idaho's from IDFG's harvest statistics. Nothing on this site is estimated or modeled; each figure is read from a published state document and shown with its year.
The denominator is always total hunters afield. Neither state publishes how many hunters were after a bull, a cow, or a buck, so every narrower rate divides by everyone. Pick "Bull elk only" on the map and the rate is branch-antlered bulls killed divided by all elk hunters in the unit, including the ones who carried a cow tag. Spikes are counted separately. The "6+ point bull only" rate works the same way: six-point-or-better bulls over every elk hunter. That keeps the rates comparable between units, and it means a bull rate reads lower than the share of bull hunters who filled.
The two states also measure slightly different pools. Idaho's unit figures here come from IDFG's general-season statistics, so controlled-hunt tags are not part of them. Montana's district figures count all elk hunters FWP surveyed in the district. Compare units within a state first; compare across the state line with that difference in mind.
Montana's survey years
FWP surveys elk hunters in even years and deer hunters in odd years. Half of all Montana district-years therefore have no hunter count by design, and the site shows "not published" rather than filling the gap. A Montana elk rate for 2021–2025 pools 2022 and 2024. A Montana deer rate pools 2021, 2023, and 2025. Idaho does not alternate, so an Idaho rate can pool all five seasons.
Montana deer have one more wrinkle. FWP counts deer hunters, not mule deer hunters and whitetail hunters, so both species divide by the same pool. Montana's statewide mule deer rate is 23.2% and its whitetail rate is 23.4%, and each is that species' harvest over every deer hunter in the district. The rates compare districts fairly, but they read lower than a species-only figure would, because a hunter who only wanted a whitetail still counts against the mule deer rate. Idaho reports mule deer and whitetail together, so an Idaho deer rate is all deer.
One season versus five
A single season is a small sample of weather, snow, and hunter luck. HD 322 pooled 31.9% across its surveyed years, and 22.7% in 2024 alone. In Idaho, Unit 45 pooled 19.1% against 10.4% in 2025. Same units, same hunting, different years.
The ranked rate on this site is pooled, not averaged: total harvest across 2021–2025 divided by total hunters across the same years, counting only years the state surveyed hunters. A season with twice the hunters carries twice the weight, which is what you want. The unit pages still show every year on its own in the success rate history table, with the hunter count beside each rate, so you can see whether a unit is steady or swings.
The 100-hunter floor
Small samples lie. Picture a unit with 8 hunters and 5 elk killed: it posts 62.5 percent, and one elk more or less moves it by 12.5 points. That is arithmetic, not a pattern. A unit needs an average of 100 hunters a year across its counted years before it appears in any ranking on this site. The map still colors small units by their rate, so when a unit looks unusually good, check the hunter count next to the number before you believe it.
Trophy share
The best-units pages carry one more column: 6+ pt bulls for elk and 4+ pt for deer. That is not a success rate. It is the share of the harvest that reached that size: six-point-or-better bulls as a share of all bulls killed, spikes included, or four-point-or-better bucks as a share of antlered deer killed. It needs at least two surveyed years with antler-point data, and shows a dash otherwise.
Read the two together. A unit with a modest success rate and a high trophy share is one where fewer hunters kill, but what they kill is mostly mature. A unit with a high rate and a low share is one where you are likelier to fill a tag, but the bulls killed there run younger. Neither is better; they answer different questions.
Residents and nonresidents
Montana's harvest reports split hunters and harvest by residency, so you can switch the Montana planner to Nonresident and every district's rate becomes the nonresident cohort's own. The Montana best-units pages add a separate list ranked on nonresident hunters only, and each Montana unit page has a Success by residency table with both columns and both hunter counts. Point-class figures are not split by residency, so trophy rates stay the same when you switch.
Idaho does not publish a residency split. An Idaho rate is every hunter in the unit, and the site says so rather than invent one. The Montana nonresident guide and the Idaho nonresident guide cover how each state sells tags to out-of-state hunters.
What a rate can't tell you
A rate tells you how the hunters in a unit did. It does not tell you how you would get a license to hunt there, how much of the unit you can legally walk on, or how hard those hunters worked for it. HD 455 has one of the highest elk rates in Montana, 49.7% for 2021–2025, and FWP's 2026 regulations list no General Elk License season there at all: elk hunting in that district is by drawn license or permit only. A high rate can also sit on mostly private ground, or reflect a short season in a small area.
Use the rate to build a shortlist, then open each unit's page for public land, satellite imagery, 3D terrain, and the 2026 license rules. How to pick an elk unit walks through that process step by step.
Sources
- Montana FWP — Harvest Reports — district hunter and harvest counts, residency splits, and antler-point classes behind every Montana rate. Accessed September 2026.
- Idaho Fish and Game — Big Game Harvest Statistics — general-season unit hunter and harvest counts behind every Idaho rate. Accessed September 2026.
- Montana FWP — 2026 Deer, Elk, and Antelope Regulations (PDF) — HD 455 elk hunting by drawing only, p. 106. Accessed September 2026.